Midterm Madness

Sources, scope & limits.

This edition includes every House and Senate race outside Cook Political Report’s Solid categories in the October 30 snapshot: 85 House districts and 15 Senate contests. Safe races are included in the majority arithmetic, but not individually listed. Race listings identify the incumbent running for re-election or OPEN when no incumbent is running. OPEN does not necessarily mean the seat is vacant. Candidate names, parties and incumbency were checked against Ballotpedia’s 2026 election pages on November 3, 2026; each race detail links to its candidate source. The display focuses on the main candidates. Additional candidates and write-ins are shown only for Maine and Alaska, where ranked-choice voting can affect the outcome. Nebraska’s main independent challenger remains included. New York fusion ballot lines are retained in the party information.

Timing is an estimated first-reporting sequence, not a promised release schedule or a prediction of when a race will be decided. Ties within a window are sorted Senate first, then by district. New Hampshire’s tiny midnight-voting towns are excluded. Alaska’s final closing is 10 PM PST. Arizona’s listed 7 PM reporting window follows its 6 PM poll close.

Polling coverage is selective. “Not available in this edition” means no figure was verified for this page; it does not assert that no public poll exists. Single-poll field-end dates are labeled when full dates are unavailable. Older and sponsored polls deserve particular caution. A polling average has no single sample size or margin of error.

Administrative district-level early-return counts were not verified for this edition. The available early-vote entries are two dated statewide snapshots and one district survey self-report. Missing figures are never treated as zero. Candidate vote returns appear separately when supplied by the connected state-results feed.

Scenario and manual-call changes are stored only in this browser. They do not update other visitors’ pages. The results display checks the connected results feed every 60 seconds while the page is visible, with manual refresh and pause controls. The connected public feed supplies official state counts via Open America for 22 states; individual race records may arrive later. It supplies neither estimated votes counted, race calls, nor a nationwide ballot count. Percentages describe the source’s reporting units (which can be counties, localities, or precincts); statewide figures are labeled. Uncovered states have official-office links in race details. Results are separate from the polling snapshot and the browser-local majority scenario. Connected races show their source update time; unavailable updates retain the last available data with a warning. A reporting percentage is not a race call. Source timestamps are feed-wide timestamps, not verified per-race update times. See Open America’s coverage and data definitions.